Official National Hurricane Center forecasts project Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a disorganized structure under easterly shear, to intensify steadily once shear diminishes after 24 hours. Warm sea-surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and favorable moisture support strengthening to at least 70 kt by 60 hours and 80 kt by 72 hours, placing it well above the 64 kt hurricane threshold by Monday. Trader consensus at 94.7% reflects this model agreement and historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems. Realistic challenges include prolonged shear, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina altering the track, or unexpected dry-air intrusion that could limit development.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA tempestade tropical Lowell se fortalecerá para um furacão?
A tempestade tropical Lowell se fortalecerá para um furacão?
Sim
93% chance
NOVO
NOVO
8 set 2026
Sim
93% chance
NOVO
NOVO
8 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts project Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a disorganized structure under easterly shear, to intensify steadily once shear diminishes after 24 hours. Warm sea-surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and favorable moisture support strengthening to at least 70 kt by 60 hours and 80 kt by 72 hours, placing it well above the 64 kt hurricane threshold by Monday. Trader consensus at 94.7% reflects this model agreement and historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems. Realistic challenges include prolonged shear, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina altering the track, or unexpected dry-air intrusion that could limit development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,287Data de Término
9 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts project Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a disorganized structure under easterly shear, to intensify steadily once shear diminishes after 24 hours. Warm sea-surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and favorable moisture support strengthening to at least 70 kt by 60 hours and 80 kt by 72 hours, placing it well above the 64 kt hurricane threshold by Monday. Trader consensus at 94.7% reflects this model agreement and historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems. Realistic challenges include prolonged shear, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina altering the track, or unexpected dry-air intrusion that could limit development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$2,489Data de Término
9 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Official National Hurricane Center forecasts project Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a disorganized structure under easterly shear, to intensify steadily once shear diminishes after 24 hours. Warm sea-surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and favorable moisture support strengthening to at least 70 kt by 60 hours and 80 kt by 72 hours, placing it well above the 64 kt hurricane threshold by Monday. Trader consensus at 94.7% reflects this model agreement and historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems. Realistic challenges include prolonged shear, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina altering the track, or unexpected dry-air intrusion that could limit development.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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