Recent National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Dolly has already lost its closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave, with sustained winds near 35 knots amid increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry air enhanced by El Niño conditions. Official forecasts and model consensus show the system continuing to degenerate before reaching the Leeward Islands, consistent with historical patterns where fast-moving early-season Atlantic storms rarely intensify under such hostile steering patterns and atmospheric profiles. Trader consensus reflects this low probability of reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. While a slim chance remains for remnant moisture to redevelop over more favorable waters near the Bahamas later next week, current data indicate any reformation would likely stay below hurricane intensity given the rapid forward motion and environmental barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Tempestade Tropical Dolly se fortalecerá para um furacão?
A Tempestade Tropical Dolly se fortalecerá para um furacão?
Sim
6% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
Sim
6% chance
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Dolly has already lost its closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave, with sustained winds near 35 knots amid increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry air enhanced by El Niño conditions. Official forecasts and model consensus show the system continuing to degenerate before reaching the Leeward Islands, consistent with historical patterns where fast-moving early-season Atlantic storms rarely intensify under such hostile steering patterns and atmospheric profiles. Trader consensus reflects this low probability of reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. While a slim chance remains for remnant moisture to redevelop over more favorable waters near the Bahamas later next week, current data indicate any reformation would likely stay below hurricane intensity given the rapid forward motion and environmental barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$170Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Dolly has already lost its closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave, with sustained winds near 35 knots amid increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry air enhanced by El Niño conditions. Official forecasts and model consensus show the system continuing to degenerate before reaching the Leeward Islands, consistent with historical patterns where fast-moving early-season Atlantic storms rarely intensify under such hostile steering patterns and atmospheric profiles. Trader consensus reflects this low probability of reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. While a slim chance remains for remnant moisture to redevelop over more favorable waters near the Bahamas later next week, current data indicate any reformation would likely stay below hurricane intensity given the rapid forward motion and environmental barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$170Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Dolly has already lost its closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave, with sustained winds near 35 knots amid increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry air enhanced by El Niño conditions. Official forecasts and model consensus show the system continuing to degenerate before reaching the Leeward Islands, consistent with historical patterns where fast-moving early-season Atlantic storms rarely intensify under such hostile steering patterns and atmospheric profiles. Trader consensus reflects this low probability of reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. While a slim chance remains for remnant moisture to redevelop over more favorable waters near the Bahamas later next week, current data indicate any reformation would likely stay below hurricane intensity given the rapid forward motion and environmental barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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