Mike Derry holds a clear lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the United Conservative Party's longstanding strength in the southeast Calgary riding and his June 2026 nomination victory over a sitting city councillor. The September 14, 2026, contest follows the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, with nominations closing August 27. Kyle Campbell, the NDP candidate, sits at 23.5% amid the opposition's efforts to challenge in suburban seats. Lower-priced contenders including Kyle Joseph of the Progressive Tory Party at 5.0% and Liberal leader John Roggeveen at 3.5% reflect limited support in a riding where UCP candidates have historically prevailed. Trader consensus reflects the party's provincial incumbency and recent nomination dynamics ahead of election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМайк Дерри 73%
Кайл Кэмпбелл 24%
Кайл Джозеф 5%
Джон Роггевин 3.5%
Майк Дерри
73%
Кайл Кэмпбелл
24%
Кайл Джозеф
5%
Джон Роггевин
4%
Майк Дерри 73%
Кайл Кэмпбелл 24%
Кайл Джозеф 5%
Джон Роггевин 3.5%
Майк Дерри
73%
Кайл Кэмпбелл
24%
Кайл Джозеф
5%
Джон Роггевин
4%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a clear lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the United Conservative Party's longstanding strength in the southeast Calgary riding and his June 2026 nomination victory over a sitting city councillor. The September 14, 2026, contest follows the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, with nominations closing August 27. Kyle Campbell, the NDP candidate, sits at 23.5% amid the opposition's efforts to challenge in suburban seats. Lower-priced contenders including Kyle Joseph of the Progressive Tory Party at 5.0% and Liberal leader John Roggeveen at 3.5% reflect limited support in a riding where UCP candidates have historically prevailed. Trader consensus reflects the party's provincial incumbency and recent nomination dynamics ahead of election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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