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icon for Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Политика·Новая Зеландия

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

icon for Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Политика·Новая Зеландия

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

24% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
24% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent survival of an internal National Party caucus leadership vote on April 21, amid slumping polls, has steadied his position within the coalition government, driving trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability he remains in office past September 30. Latest May polls from Talbot Mills and Taxpayers' Union-Curia show National at 29-30%, with the National-ACT-NZ First bloc hovering near 48-50%—competitive but trailing Labour—yet insufficient for opposition no-confidence success ahead of the November 7 general election. Ongoing policy signals on immigration, Budget 2026 capital spending, and dismissal of OECD LNG critiques underscore active leadership without fresh scandals or donor revolts materializing, tempering spill risks in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,963
Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent survival of an internal National Party caucus leadership vote on April 21, amid slumping polls, has steadied his position within the coalition government, driving trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability he remains in office past September 30. Latest May polls from Talbot Mills and Taxpayers' Union-Curia show National at 29-30%, with the National-ACT-NZ First bloc hovering near 48-50%—competitive but trailing Labour—yet insufficient for opposition no-confidence success ahead of the November 7 general election. Ongoing policy signals on immigration, Budget 2026 capital spending, and dismissal of OECD LNG critiques underscore active leadership without fresh scandals or donor revolts materializing, tempering spill risks in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,963
Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Christopher Luxon out by September 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 24% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 24¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 24%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Christopher Luxon out by September 30?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 21, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Christopher Luxon out by September 30?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Christopher Luxon out by September 30?» составляет 24% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 24%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Christopher Luxon out by September 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.