Trump's continued tenure through late September 2026 reflects the absence of active removal processes capable of succeeding in the narrow window. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including the August 2026 measure, to committee without floor action, while Senate thresholds for conviction remain unreachable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment lacks support from the vice president or Cabinet. No verified health developments, resignation signals, or legal disqualifications have emerged in recent weeks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity because midterm elections occur after the resolution date and historical precedent shows rapid presidential removals as rare outside terminal incapacity or overwhelming bipartisan consensus. Unforeseen acute events, such as sudden medical incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings, represent the primary low-probability variables that could still shift the outcome before September 30.