Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April, driven by a 10.9% spike in energy prices amid the Iran war, has propelled trader consensus to price a 91.5% probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. The Governing Council held key interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but extensively debated increases, with President Lagarde signaling readiness to act if inflation persists above the 2% target. Policymakers and a Bloomberg economist survey anticipate at least two hikes starting in June, reflecting heightened risks from geopolitical tensions despite forecasts of inflation retreating toward target next year. The June policy decision looms as the next catalyst, though rapid de-escalation or softer data could temper expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение ставки ЕЦБ в 2026 году?
Повышение ставки ЕЦБ в 2026 году?
Да
$112,813 Объем
$112,813 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$112,813 Объем
$112,813 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April, driven by a 10.9% spike in energy prices amid the Iran war, has propelled trader consensus to price a 91.5% probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. The Governing Council held key interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but extensively debated increases, with President Lagarde signaling readiness to act if inflation persists above the 2% target. Policymakers and a Bloomberg economist survey anticipate at least two hikes starting in June, reflecting heightened risks from geopolitical tensions despite forecasts of inflation retreating toward target next year. The June policy decision looms as the next catalyst, though rapid de-escalation or softer data could temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Объем
$112,813Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April, driven by a 10.9% spike in energy prices amid the Iran war, has propelled trader consensus to price a 91.5% probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. The Governing Council held key interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but extensively debated increases, with President Lagarde signaling readiness to act if inflation persists above the 2% target. Policymakers and a Bloomberg economist survey anticipate at least two hikes starting in June, reflecting heightened risks from geopolitical tensions despite forecasts of inflation retreating toward target next year. The June policy decision looms as the next catalyst, though rapid de-escalation or softer data could temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$112,813Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April, driven by a 10.9% spike in energy prices amid the Iran war, has propelled trader consensus to price a 91.5% probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026. The Governing Council held key interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but extensively debated increases, with President Lagarde signaling readiness to act if inflation persists above the 2% target. Policymakers and a Bloomberg economist survey anticipate at least two hikes starting in June, reflecting heightened risks from geopolitical tensions despite forecasts of inflation retreating toward target next year. The June policy decision looms as the next catalyst, though rapid de-escalation or softer data could temper expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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