Forecast models for Mexico City on June 15 point to a daytime maximum near 25°C, with trader consensus split mainly between 24–26°C due to uncertainty in afternoon convective timing. At 2,240 m elevation, the city’s highland setting suppresses temperatures relative to lowland sites, while early June rainy-season moisture from the Pacific and Gulf fuels scattered showers that can cap afternoon heating by 1–2°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in cloud cover and precipitation onset, directly separating the narrow probability bands; clearer skies would favor 26°C, whereas earlier or heavier rain would anchor the outcome at 24°C or below. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and short-range updates through the evening of June 14 will refine these thresholds before resolution.