Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials, combined with elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 3, with an intraday peak of 4.818%—its highest since November 2023. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reflected in the PCE gauge near 3.7%, and a federal debt load exceeding $40 trillion have lifted term premiums and real yields. Heavy corporate issuance for AI infrastructure adds supply pressure, while markets price a roughly 65% probability of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. These dynamics underscore trader focus on whether growth and fiscal trends will sustain higher borrowing costs through month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
5,10%
6%
5,05%
50%
5,00%
50%
4,97%
50%
4,94%
50%
4,91%
51%
4,88%
51%
4,85%
51%
4,82%
51%
$0.00 Объем
5,10%
$0 Объем
6%
5,05%
$0 Объем
50%
5,00%
$0 Объем
50%
4,97%
$0 Объем
50%
4,94%
$0 Объем
50%
4,91%
$0 Объем
51%
4,88%
$0 Объем
51%
4,85%
$0 Объем
51%
4,82%
$0 Объем
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials, combined with elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 3, with an intraday peak of 4.818%—its highest since November 2023. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reflected in the PCE gauge near 3.7%, and a federal debt load exceeding $40 trillion have lifted term premiums and real yields. Heavy corporate issuance for AI infrastructure adds supply pressure, while markets price a roughly 65% probability of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. These dynamics underscore trader focus on whether growth and fiscal trends will sustain higher borrowing costs through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials, combined with elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 3, with an intraday peak of 4.818%—its highest since November 2023. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reflected in the PCE gauge near 3.7%, and a federal debt load exceeding $40 trillion have lifted term premiums and real yields. Heavy corporate issuance for AI infrastructure adds supply pressure, while markets price a roughly 65% probability of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. These dynamics underscore trader focus on whether growth and fiscal trends will sustain higher borrowing costs through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials, combined with elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 3, with an intraday peak of 4.818%—its highest since November 2023. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reflected in the PCE gauge near 3.7%, and a federal debt load exceeding $40 trillion have lifted term premiums and real yields. Heavy corporate issuance for AI infrastructure adds supply pressure, while markets price a roughly 65% probability of a 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. These dynamics underscore trader focus on whether growth and fiscal trends will sustain higher borrowing costs through month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы