Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 70.5%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,894,768 Объем
$26,894,768 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 70.5%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,894,768 Объем
$26,894,768 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,187,685 Объем
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,244,767 Объем
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,204,227 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,801 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,195,404 Объем
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,416,872 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,486,259 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,322,162 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,728,672 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,451,665 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,119,777 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,270,425 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,153,384 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$26,894,768Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$26,894,768Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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