Traders are assigning a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the central bank’s current data-dependent stance and a resilient U.S. economy that has kept the Fed funds rate steady. Recent labor-market reports and inflation readings above the 2% target have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive through year-end, with market pricing showing little room for easing even as Treasury yields stabilize. The sharply lower odds on one or more cuts highlight how stronger-than-expected growth and contained unemployment have shifted the consensus toward a higher-for-longer path. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC minutes, which could further anchor or adjust these probabilities based on incoming data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 70.5%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,915,035 Объем
$26,915,035 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 70.5%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,915,035 Объем
$26,915,035 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,188,462 Объем
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,244,767 Объем
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,204,248 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,801 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,195,952 Объем
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,417,454 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,488,834 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,323,336 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,731,587 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,454,264 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,122,368 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,273,415 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,157,220 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders are assigning a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the central bank’s current data-dependent stance and a resilient U.S. economy that has kept the Fed funds rate steady. Recent labor-market reports and inflation readings above the 2% target have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive through year-end, with market pricing showing little room for easing even as Treasury yields stabilize. The sharply lower odds on one or more cuts highlight how stronger-than-expected growth and contained unemployment have shifted the consensus toward a higher-for-longer path. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC minutes, which could further anchor or adjust these probabilities based on incoming data.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$26,915,035Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders are assigning a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the central bank’s current data-dependent stance and a resilient U.S. economy that has kept the Fed funds rate steady. Recent labor-market reports and inflation readings above the 2% target have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive through year-end, with market pricing showing little room for easing even as Treasury yields stabilize. The sharply lower odds on one or more cuts highlight how stronger-than-expected growth and contained unemployment have shifted the consensus toward a higher-for-longer path. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC minutes, which could further anchor or adjust these probabilities based on incoming data.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$26,915,035Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are assigning a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the central bank’s current data-dependent stance and a resilient U.S. economy that has kept the Fed funds rate steady. Recent labor-market reports and inflation readings above the 2% target have reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive through year-end, with market pricing showing little room for easing even as Treasury yields stabilize. The sharply lower odds on one or more cuts highlight how stronger-than-expected growth and contained unemployment have shifted the consensus toward a higher-for-longer path. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC minutes, which could further anchor or adjust these probabilities based on incoming data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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