**Elevated inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** The April 29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the statement highlighting inflation that remains above target partly due to higher global energy prices and a still-solid labor market. Recent broker revisions, including BofA’s shift to zero cuts until 2027 and Goldman Sachs delaying its first cut to December 2026, reinforce the hawkish tilt. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, assigning 70.9 percent probability to zero cuts versus just 15.5 percent for a single 25-basis-point reduction, as participants price in a data-dependent path that favors holding steady absent clear disinflation. The May CPI release and upcoming FOMC decisions remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 70.8%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,866,638 Объем
$26,866,638 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 70.8%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,866,638 Объем
$26,866,638 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,184,964 Объем
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,244,439 Объем
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,203,687 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,699 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,194,408 Объем
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,415,519 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,484,081 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,322,077 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,726,639 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,449,312 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,115,564 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,263,007 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,149,244 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Elevated inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** The April 29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the statement highlighting inflation that remains above target partly due to higher global energy prices and a still-solid labor market. Recent broker revisions, including BofA’s shift to zero cuts until 2027 and Goldman Sachs delaying its first cut to December 2026, reinforce the hawkish tilt. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, assigning 70.9 percent probability to zero cuts versus just 15.5 percent for a single 25-basis-point reduction, as participants price in a data-dependent path that favors holding steady absent clear disinflation. The May CPI release and upcoming FOMC decisions remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$26,866,638Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Elevated inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** The April 29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the statement highlighting inflation that remains above target partly due to higher global energy prices and a still-solid labor market. Recent broker revisions, including BofA’s shift to zero cuts until 2027 and Goldman Sachs delaying its first cut to December 2026, reinforce the hawkish tilt. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, assigning 70.9 percent probability to zero cuts versus just 15.5 percent for a single 25-basis-point reduction, as participants price in a data-dependent path that favors holding steady absent clear disinflation. The May CPI release and upcoming FOMC decisions remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$26,866,638Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Elevated inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.** The April 29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the statement highlighting inflation that remains above target partly due to higher global energy prices and a still-solid labor market. Recent broker revisions, including BofA’s shift to zero cuts until 2027 and Goldman Sachs delaying its first cut to December 2026, reinforce the hawkish tilt. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, assigning 70.9 percent probability to zero cuts versus just 15.5 percent for a single 25-basis-point reduction, as participants price in a data-dependent path that favors holding steady absent clear disinflation. The May CPI release and upcoming FOMC decisions remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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