Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 71.0%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,864,429 Объем
$26,864,429 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 71.0%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 16%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,864,429 Объем
$26,864,429 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,184,871 Объем
71%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,244,245 Объем
16%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,203,687 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,699 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,194,248 Объем
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,415,109 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,483,676 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,322,072 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,725,948 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,449,310 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,115,553 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,262,988 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,149,094 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$26,864,429Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$26,864,429Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—up from 3.3% in March and driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid the Iran conflict—has anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% and no reductions implemented so far, market-implied odds favor holding rates through December at 71%, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and revised forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing any easing into 2027. Resilient labor market conditions and above-target inflation have tempered earlier dot-plot expectations of a single 25-basis-point move, while upcoming FOMC meetings and May inflation releases remain key data points that could shift probabilities if energy prices moderate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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