Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 69.2%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 17%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$25,917,535 Объем
$25,917,535 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
69%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
17%
2 (50 б.п.)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 69.2%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 17%
2 (50 б.п.) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$25,917,535 Объем
$25,917,535 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,055,753 Объем
69%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,214,605 Объем
17%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,170,364 Объем
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,064,870 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,142,957 Объем
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,377,382 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,434,007 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,089,719 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,685,029 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,400,471 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,010,194 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,183,753 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,088,678 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$25,917,535Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$25,917,535Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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