The Iranian regime’s consolidation of power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime strikes has left few verifiable signs of an organized factional challenge capable of producing a coup attempt by late June. Recent weeks have featured intensified executions of protesters and continued suppression of nationwide demonstrations that began in late 2025, yet these actions have reinforced rather than undermined the current security apparatus. Diplomatic exchanges with the United States remain stalled without triggering internal military fractures, and analysts note the gradual shift toward a clerical-military structure rather than any abrupt power grab. With no major new defections, public ultimatums, or coordinated opposition signals emerging in the past month, traders price the probability of a coup attempt before the deadline at just 8.5 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,128,103 Объем
$1,128,103 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,128,103 Объем
$1,128,103 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s consolidation of power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime strikes has left few verifiable signs of an organized factional challenge capable of producing a coup attempt by late June. Recent weeks have featured intensified executions of protesters and continued suppression of nationwide demonstrations that began in late 2025, yet these actions have reinforced rather than undermined the current security apparatus. Diplomatic exchanges with the United States remain stalled without triggering internal military fractures, and analysts note the gradual shift toward a clerical-military structure rather than any abrupt power grab. With no major new defections, public ultimatums, or coordinated opposition signals emerging in the past month, traders price the probability of a coup attempt before the deadline at just 8.5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,128,103Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s consolidation of power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime strikes has left few verifiable signs of an organized factional challenge capable of producing a coup attempt by late June. Recent weeks have featured intensified executions of protesters and continued suppression of nationwide demonstrations that began in late 2025, yet these actions have reinforced rather than undermined the current security apparatus. Diplomatic exchanges with the United States remain stalled without triggering internal military fractures, and analysts note the gradual shift toward a clerical-military structure rather than any abrupt power grab. With no major new defections, public ultimatums, or coordinated opposition signals emerging in the past month, traders price the probability of a coup attempt before the deadline at just 8.5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,128,103Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s consolidation of power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 leadership transition and wartime strikes has left few verifiable signs of an organized factional challenge capable of producing a coup attempt by late June. Recent weeks have featured intensified executions of protesters and continued suppression of nationwide demonstrations that began in late 2025, yet these actions have reinforced rather than undermined the current security apparatus. Diplomatic exchanges with the United States remain stalled without triggering internal military fractures, and analysts note the gradual shift toward a clerical-military structure rather than any abrupt power grab. With no major new defections, public ultimatums, or coordinated opposition signals emerging in the past month, traders price the probability of a coup attempt before the deadline at just 8.5 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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