**Recent polling averages and structural factors position Ra'am's vote share most likely in the 4–5.5% range.** As of mid-September 2026, multiple surveys (Kantar/Kan 11, Maariv/Lazar, Channel 13, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, and others) project Ra'am at 4–6 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, consistent with vote shares clustered around 4–5%. The 3.25% electoral threshold and seat-conversion mechanics make outcomes below 3.25% or above 5.5% less probable under current trends. Ra'am, running independently under Mansour Abbas after prior coalition experience, benefits from a September 12 surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List (Hadash–Ta’al), which reduces wasted Arab votes and supports combined Arab representation near 11–12 seats. The addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz as a Jewish candidate on the slate aims to broaden appeal, though polls show limited immediate shifts in support. Right-wing efforts to disqualify the party have not altered its ballot status. Trader consensus reflected in the market bins aligns closely with these stable polling aggregates, with the 4–4.75% bin leading due to consistent recent readings near the middle of Ra'am's projected range. Upcoming events within the October 27 election window, including final campaign dynamics and turnout among Arab voters, remain the primary variables that could adjust probabilities.