Current forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and other models point to an overnight low near 11°C for Helsinki on August 25, driven by mild southerly flow, broken cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and light northerly winds that may allow modest temperature drops after sunset. Ensemble spreads create the tight contest between 9°C and 10°C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud timing or wind direction can alter minimum readings by 1–2°C. Late-August climatology shows typical lows declining toward 9–11°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to values slightly below the consensus forecast while discounting extremes below 8°C or above 12°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities.