Recent data and economist consensus forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2, with private forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and U.S. Bank projecting full-year growth of 2.0–2.3% driven by AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets near 4.3% unemployment. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but not derailed expansion, while fiscal and investment tailwinds provide further support. Tail risks include sharper oil shocks or policy tightening that could compress growth toward zero, though crossing into outright annual contraction remains improbable given current momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$32,761 Объем
$32,761 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$32,761 Объем
$32,761 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent data and economist consensus forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2, with private forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and U.S. Bank projecting full-year growth of 2.0–2.3% driven by AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets near 4.3% unemployment. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but not derailed expansion, while fiscal and investment tailwinds provide further support. Tail risks include sharper oil shocks or policy tightening that could compress growth toward zero, though crossing into outright annual contraction remains improbable given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$32,761Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent data and economist consensus forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2, with private forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and U.S. Bank projecting full-year growth of 2.0–2.3% driven by AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets near 4.3% unemployment. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but not derailed expansion, while fiscal and investment tailwinds provide further support. Tail risks include sharper oil shocks or policy tightening that could compress growth toward zero, though crossing into outright annual contraction remains improbable given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$32,761Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent data and economist consensus forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2, with private forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and U.S. Bank projecting full-year growth of 2.0–2.3% driven by AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets near 4.3% unemployment. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but not derailed expansion, while fiscal and investment tailwinds provide further support. Tail risks include sharper oil shocks or policy tightening that could compress growth toward zero, though crossing into outright annual contraction remains improbable given current momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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