**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for roughly 25–35 seats in the October 5 election, consistent with trader emphasis on the 30+ and 20–29 ranges.** After François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, new leader Christine Fréchette assumed the premiership in April and stabilized support amid widespread voter fatigue with the incumbent after eight years in power. Late-August and early-September surveys show the CAQ at 23–24 percent, narrowly ahead of the Liberals and behind the leading Parti Québécois, with regional strength outside Montreal and in suburban ridings helping convert votes into seats despite a fragmented five-party contest. Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ near 27 seats on average, though wide simulation ranges reflect uncertainty from vote splitting, turnout shifts, and remaining campaign events. The market’s weighting toward 30+ seats captures scenarios in which Fréchette’s leadership gains consolidate further before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОбщие выборы в Квебеке: CAQ # Seats?
Общие выборы в Квебеке: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 47%
20-24 28%
25-29 18%
15-19 3.3%
$13,392 Объем
$13,392 Объем
5 окт. 2026 г.
<5
2%
5-9
3%
10-14
3%
15-19
3%
20-24
28%
25-29
23%
30+
47%
30+ 47%
20-24 28%
25-29 18%
15-19 3.3%
$13,392 Объем
$13,392 Объем
5 окт. 2026 г.
<5
$647 Объем
2%
5-9
$1,042 Объем
3%
10-14
$2,752 Объем
3%
15-19
$1,539 Объем
3%
20-24
$2,843 Объем
28%
25-29
$1,338 Объем
23%
30+
$3,230 Объем
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for roughly 25–35 seats in the October 5 election, consistent with trader emphasis on the 30+ and 20–29 ranges.**
After François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, new leader Christine Fréchette assumed the premiership in April and stabilized support amid widespread voter fatigue with the incumbent after eight years in power. Late-August and early-September surveys show the CAQ at 23–24 percent, narrowly ahead of the Liberals and behind the leading Parti Québécois, with regional strength outside Montreal and in suburban ridings helping convert votes into seats despite a fragmented five-party contest. Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ near 27 seats on average, though wide simulation ranges reflect uncertainty from vote splitting, turnout shifts, and remaining campaign events. The market’s weighting toward 30+ seats captures scenarios in which Fréchette’s leadership gains consolidate further before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Объем
$13,392Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for roughly 25–35 seats in the October 5 election, consistent with trader emphasis on the 30+ and 20–29 ranges.**
After François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, new leader Christine Fréchette assumed the premiership in April and stabilized support amid widespread voter fatigue with the incumbent after eight years in power. Late-August and early-September surveys show the CAQ at 23–24 percent, narrowly ahead of the Liberals and behind the leading Parti Québécois, with regional strength outside Montreal and in suburban ridings helping convert votes into seats despite a fragmented five-party contest. Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ near 27 seats on average, though wide simulation ranges reflect uncertainty from vote splitting, turnout shifts, and remaining campaign events. The market’s weighting toward 30+ seats captures scenarios in which Fréchette’s leadership gains consolidate further before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Объем
$13,392Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for roughly 25–35 seats in the October 5 election, consistent with trader emphasis on the 30+ and 20–29 ranges.** After François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, new leader Christine Fréchette assumed the premiership in April and stabilized support amid widespread voter fatigue with the incumbent after eight years in power. Late-August and early-September surveys show the CAQ at 23–24 percent, narrowly ahead of the Liberals and behind the leading Parti Québécois, with regional strength outside Montreal and in suburban ridings helping convert votes into seats despite a fragmented five-party contest. Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ near 27 seats on average, though wide simulation ranges reflect uncertainty from vote splitting, turnout shifts, and remaining campaign events. The market’s weighting toward 30+ seats captures scenarios in which Fréchette’s leadership gains consolidate further before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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