New People, a systemic opposition party founded in 2020 and currently holding 15 Duma seats after clearing the 5% threshold with 5.3% of the party-list vote in 2021, faces the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election amid United Russia’s expected dominance of the 450-seat chamber. Recent state polls from VTsIOM and FOM show the party ranging from roughly 8–15% support, potentially competing for third place behind the Communists and LDPR as some protest or younger voters shift toward it following Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot. Independent surveys indicate lower figures, while the mixed-member proportional system, single-mandate district dynamics, and tight Kremlin oversight of “systemic” parties constrain upside beyond modest faction growth. These conditions align trader consensus with limited seat gains under 35, though stronger-than-expected turnout among its target demographics or further vote consolidation from barred alternatives could push results into the 35–54 range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<35 63%
45–54 15.1%
35–44 7.2%
65–74 <1%
$41,908 Объем
$41,908 Объем
<35
63%
35–44
7%
45–54
20%
55–64
1%
65–74
1%
75–84
<1%
85+
1%
<35 63%
45–54 15.1%
35–44 7.2%
65–74 <1%
$41,908 Объем
$41,908 Объем
<35
63%
35–44
7%
45–54
20%
55–64
1%
65–74
1%
75–84
<1%
85+
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Открытие рынка: Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...New People, a systemic opposition party founded in 2020 and currently holding 15 Duma seats after clearing the 5% threshold with 5.3% of the party-list vote in 2021, faces the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election amid United Russia’s expected dominance of the 450-seat chamber. Recent state polls from VTsIOM and FOM show the party ranging from roughly 8–15% support, potentially competing for third place behind the Communists and LDPR as some protest or younger voters shift toward it following Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot. Independent surveys indicate lower figures, while the mixed-member proportional system, single-mandate district dynamics, and tight Kremlin oversight of “systemic” parties constrain upside beyond modest faction growth. These conditions align trader consensus with limited seat gains under 35, though stronger-than-expected turnout among its target demographics or further vote consolidation from barred alternatives could push results into the 35–54 range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Получит ли «Единая Россия» от 325 до 339 мест на следующих выборах в Государственную думу России?
Получит ли ЛДПР (Либерально-демократическая партия России) менее 45 мест на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу России?
Получит ли партия «Справедливая Россия — За правду» (СРЗП) хотя бы одно место на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу России?
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