Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin has maintained continuity through mid-August 2026, with no verified coup attempt materializing despite earlier reports of tightened Kremlin security measures prompted by European intelligence assessments from March onward. High approval ratings near 74 percent, elite loyalty within security structures, and the absence of organized challenges from figures such as Sergei Shoigu have reinforced trader expectations. The 2023 Wagner mutiny precedent and ongoing consolidation of power around the presidency further support the market’s 93.5 percent probability on “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds pricing structural stability over intermittent rumors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7% вероятность
$126,094 Объем
$126,094 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
7% вероятность
$126,094 Объем
$126,094 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin has maintained continuity through mid-August 2026, with no verified coup attempt materializing despite earlier reports of tightened Kremlin security measures prompted by European intelligence assessments from March onward. High approval ratings near 74 percent, elite loyalty within security structures, and the absence of organized challenges from figures such as Sergei Shoigu have reinforced trader expectations. The 2023 Wagner mutiny precedent and ongoing consolidation of power around the presidency further support the market’s 93.5 percent probability on “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds pricing structural stability over intermittent rumors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Объем
$126,094Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin has maintained continuity through mid-August 2026, with no verified coup attempt materializing despite earlier reports of tightened Kremlin security measures prompted by European intelligence assessments from March onward. High approval ratings near 74 percent, elite loyalty within security structures, and the absence of organized challenges from figures such as Sergei Shoigu have reinforced trader expectations. The 2023 Wagner mutiny precedent and ongoing consolidation of power around the presidency further support the market’s 93.5 percent probability on “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds pricing structural stability over intermittent rumors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$126,094Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin has maintained continuity through mid-August 2026, with no verified coup attempt materializing despite earlier reports of tightened Kremlin security measures prompted by European intelligence assessments from March onward. High approval ratings near 74 percent, elite loyalty within security structures, and the absence of organized challenges from figures such as Sergei Shoigu have reinforced trader expectations. The 2023 Wagner mutiny precedent and ongoing consolidation of power around the presidency further support the market’s 93.5 percent probability on “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds pricing structural stability over intermittent rumors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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