Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko's federal party list from the September 18–20 State Duma ballot after a challenge by the Rodina party on procedural grounds, following the Central Election Commission's earlier registration. This decision aligns with sustained administrative pressure on the liberal opposition party, which has failed to exceed the 5% proportional threshold in every national election since 1999 and last polled near 1.3%. With voting weeks away and Yabloko's appeal pending, traders assign near-certain odds to "No" based on the effective exclusion from nationwide party-list competition. A successful reversal could reopen a narrow path, though historical results and the broader electoral environment limit realistic upside even if reinstated.