**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through late August 2026 show D4 (exceptional drought) confined to a limited set of states, primarily Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Idaho, Oregon, Arkansas, and parts of Nebraska, with D4 coverage under 2% nationally.** Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether short-term precipitation deficits and heat in the southern and northern Plains will expand these areas or if scattered rains and the strengthening El Niño will trigger improvements before the early September map. NOAA outlooks favor monsoon-enhanced moisture and wetter patterns across the Southwest and southern tier, supporting potential D4 reductions there, while drier signals persist in the Northwest and northern Plains. The tight clustering around 5–9 states versus 10+ captures the narrow window for measurable shifts in state-level D4 extent driven by model consensus on El Niño teleconnections and weekly rainfall variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 1 сентября 2026 года?
Сколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 1 сентября 2026 года?
10 или более штатов 44%
5-6 штатов 38%
7-9 штатов 38%
0 штатов 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
26%
1-2 штата
26%
3-4 штата
26%
5-6 штатов
38%
7-9 штатов
38%
10 или более штатов
44%
10 или более штатов 44%
5-6 штатов 38%
7-9 штатов 38%
0 штатов 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
$1 Объем
26%
1-2 штата
$0 Объем
26%
3-4 штата
$1 Объем
26%
5-6 штатов
$0 Объем
38%
7-9 штатов
$1 Объем
38%
10 или более штатов
$0 Объем
44%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through late August 2026 show D4 (exceptional drought) confined to a limited set of states, primarily Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Idaho, Oregon, Arkansas, and parts of Nebraska, with D4 coverage under 2% nationally.** Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether short-term precipitation deficits and heat in the southern and northern Plains will expand these areas or if scattered rains and the strengthening El Niño will trigger improvements before the early September map. NOAA outlooks favor monsoon-enhanced moisture and wetter patterns across the Southwest and southern tier, supporting potential D4 reductions there, while drier signals persist in the Northwest and northern Plains. The tight clustering around 5–9 states versus 10+ captures the narrow window for measurable shifts in state-level D4 extent driven by model consensus on El Niño teleconnections and weekly rainfall variability.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Объем
$3Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through late August 2026 show D4 (exceptional drought) confined to a limited set of states, primarily Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Idaho, Oregon, Arkansas, and parts of Nebraska, with D4 coverage under 2% nationally.** Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether short-term precipitation deficits and heat in the southern and northern Plains will expand these areas or if scattered rains and the strengthening El Niño will trigger improvements before the early September map. NOAA outlooks favor monsoon-enhanced moisture and wetter patterns across the Southwest and southern tier, supporting potential D4 reductions there, while drier signals persist in the Northwest and northern Plains. The tight clustering around 5–9 states versus 10+ captures the narrow window for measurable shifts in state-level D4 extent driven by model consensus on El Niño teleconnections and weekly rainfall variability.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Объем
$3Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through late August 2026 show D4 (exceptional drought) confined to a limited set of states, primarily Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Idaho, Oregon, Arkansas, and parts of Nebraska, with D4 coverage under 2% nationally.** Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether short-term precipitation deficits and heat in the southern and northern Plains will expand these areas or if scattered rains and the strengthening El Niño will trigger improvements before the early September map. NOAA outlooks favor monsoon-enhanced moisture and wetter patterns across the Southwest and southern tier, supporting potential D4 reductions there, while drier signals persist in the Northwest and northern Plains. The tight clustering around 5–9 states versus 10+ captures the narrow window for measurable shifts in state-level D4 extent driven by model consensus on El Niño teleconnections and weekly rainfall variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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