The Democratic nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-27 general election because the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical voting patterns strongly favor the party. Incumbent Democrat George Whitesides advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Jason Gibbs, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide surveys show California voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins, consistent with the seat’s location and demographic profile. The recent primary outcome, in which Gibbs led but both major-party candidates qualified, has not altered the broader structural advantage for the Democratic side heading into November. Traders’ consensus therefore reflects the limited realistic path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-27 House Election Winner
CA-27 House Election Winner
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
$1,977 Объем
93%
Republican Party
$1,806 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-27 general election because the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical voting patterns strongly favor the party. Incumbent Democrat George Whitesides advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Jason Gibbs, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide surveys show California voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins, consistent with the seat’s location and demographic profile. The recent primary outcome, in which Gibbs led but both major-party candidates qualified, has not altered the broader structural advantage for the Democratic side heading into November. Traders’ consensus therefore reflects the limited realistic path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 2:30 PM ET
Объем
$3,784Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-27 general election because the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical voting patterns strongly favor the party. Incumbent Democrat George Whitesides advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Jason Gibbs, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide surveys show California voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins, consistent with the seat’s location and demographic profile. The recent primary outcome, in which Gibbs led but both major-party candidates qualified, has not altered the broader structural advantage for the Democratic side heading into November. Traders’ consensus therefore reflects the limited realistic path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,784Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-27 general election because the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical voting patterns strongly favor the party. Incumbent Democrat George Whitesides advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Jason Gibbs, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide surveys show California voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins, consistent with the seat’s location and demographic profile. The recent primary outcome, in which Gibbs led but both major-party candidates qualified, has not altered the broader structural advantage for the Democratic side heading into November. Traders’ consensus therefore reflects the limited realistic path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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