Trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained bipartisan political opposition, explicit administration statements, and high reputational risks tied to her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The Senate unanimously adopted a resolution in July 2026 opposing any clemency for crimes involving the sexual exploitation of minors. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and would consult the Department of Justice if approached, while the White House has described it as something he is not thinking about. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 court rejection of her habeas petition, leaving only about three months in the resolution window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected executive action late in the term or new developments prompting a reevaluation of clemency powers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$759,411 Объем
$759,411 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
5% вероятность
$759,411 Объем
$759,411 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained bipartisan political opposition, explicit administration statements, and high reputational risks tied to her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The Senate unanimously adopted a resolution in July 2026 opposing any clemency for crimes involving the sexual exploitation of minors. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and would consult the Department of Justice if approached, while the White House has described it as something he is not thinking about. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 court rejection of her habeas petition, leaving only about three months in the resolution window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected executive action late in the term or new developments prompting a reevaluation of clemency powers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Объем
$759,411Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained bipartisan political opposition, explicit administration statements, and high reputational risks tied to her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The Senate unanimously adopted a resolution in July 2026 opposing any clemency for crimes involving the sexual exploitation of minors. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and would consult the Department of Justice if approached, while the White House has described it as something he is not thinking about. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 court rejection of her habeas petition, leaving only about three months in the resolution window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected executive action late in the term or new developments prompting a reevaluation of clemency powers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$759,411Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained bipartisan political opposition, explicit administration statements, and high reputational risks tied to her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction linked to Jeffrey Epstein. The Senate unanimously adopted a resolution in July 2026 opposing any clemency for crimes involving the sexual exploitation of minors. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and would consult the Department of Justice if approached, while the White House has described it as something he is not thinking about. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 court rejection of her habeas petition, leaving only about three months in the resolution window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected executive action late in the term or new developments prompting a reevaluation of clemency powers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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