The current target range of 3.50–3.75% for the federal funds rate, reaffirmed at the July 2026 FOMC meeting by a 9–3 vote amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underpins trader positioning in the December 2026 decision market. Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East uncertainty, combined with solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor market conditions, has tilted implied probabilities toward no change at 58.5% while supporting a 29.5% chance of a modest increase. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed’s dual-mandate focus on price stability over premature easing, with upcoming September data releases and FOMC communications likely to refine the path before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
No change 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 ปริมาณ
$98,058 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 ปริมาณ
$98,058 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,533 ปริมาณ
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,376 ปริมาณ
11%
No change
$21,147 ปริมาณ
59%
25 bps increase
$19,487 ปริมาณ
30%
50+ bps increase
$14,515 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The current target range of 3.50–3.75% for the federal funds rate, reaffirmed at the July 2026 FOMC meeting by a 9–3 vote amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underpins trader positioning in the December 2026 decision market. Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East uncertainty, combined with solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor market conditions, has tilted implied probabilities toward no change at 58.5% while supporting a 29.5% chance of a modest increase. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed’s dual-mandate focus on price stability over premature easing, with upcoming September data releases and FOMC communications likely to refine the path before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,058วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The current target range of 3.50–3.75% for the federal funds rate, reaffirmed at the July 2026 FOMC meeting by a 9–3 vote amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underpins trader positioning in the December 2026 decision market. Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East uncertainty, combined with solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor market conditions, has tilted implied probabilities toward no change at 58.5% while supporting a 29.5% chance of a modest increase. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed’s dual-mandate focus on price stability over premature easing, with upcoming September data releases and FOMC communications likely to refine the path before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$98,058วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The current target range of 3.50–3.75% for the federal funds rate, reaffirmed at the July 2026 FOMC meeting by a 9–3 vote amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underpins trader positioning in the December 2026 decision market. Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and Middle East uncertainty, combined with solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor market conditions, has tilted implied probabilities toward no change at 58.5% while supporting a 29.5% chance of a modest increase. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed’s dual-mandate focus on price stability over premature easing, with upcoming September data releases and FOMC communications likely to refine the path before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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