Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, alongside a resilient economy and recent FOMC holds, anchors trader consensus on no change at the January 2027 meeting (61.5% implied probability). Weak July payrolls (-23,000) and 4.1% unemployment introduce labor-market caution that tempers hike odds (25 bp increase at 20.0%), while futures markets and analyst revisions now price in potential December 2026 tightening. The September FOMC, August CPI release, and incoming PCE data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 ปริมาณ
$34,852 ปริมาณ
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 ปริมาณ
$34,852 ปริมาณ
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 ปริมาณ
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,430 ปริมาณ
15%
No change
$14,028 ปริมาณ
62%
25 bps increase
$8,045 ปริมาณ
20%
50+ bps increase
$1,463 ปริมาณ
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, alongside a resilient economy and recent FOMC holds, anchors trader consensus on no change at the January 2027 meeting (61.5% implied probability). Weak July payrolls (-23,000) and 4.1% unemployment introduce labor-market caution that tempers hike odds (25 bp increase at 20.0%), while futures markets and analyst revisions now price in potential December 2026 tightening. The September FOMC, August CPI release, and incoming PCE data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,852วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 27, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, alongside a resilient economy and recent FOMC holds, anchors trader consensus on no change at the January 2027 meeting (61.5% implied probability). Weak July payrolls (-23,000) and 4.1% unemployment introduce labor-market caution that tempers hike odds (25 bp increase at 20.0%), while futures markets and analyst revisions now price in potential December 2026 tightening. The September FOMC, August CPI release, and incoming PCE data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,852วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 27, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, alongside a resilient economy and recent FOMC holds, anchors trader consensus on no change at the January 2027 meeting (61.5% implied probability). Weak July payrolls (-23,000) and 4.1% unemployment introduce labor-market caution that tempers hike odds (25 bp increase at 20.0%), while futures markets and analyst revisions now price in potential December 2026 tightening. The September FOMC, August CPI release, and incoming PCE data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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