Recent first-quarter GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending, has anchored trader expectations for full-year 2026 expansion near the lower end of moderate ranges. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey, CBO, and private economists cluster around 2.2%, reflecting resilient consumer outlays tempered by higher energy prices and a stable but softening labor market with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0% bin at 47.3% as traders price in potential drag from tariffs and moderating fiscal support, while the 34.5% probability on growth above 2.5% captures upside from continued capital spending. The next key catalysts include May CPI and employment reports plus the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate-cut expectations and refine the growth trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 19%
<0.5% 18.6%
1.0–1.5% 12.6%
0.5–1.0% 12.3%
$28,267 ปริมาณ
$28,267 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
19%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
13%
1.5–2.0%
42%
2.0–2.5%
22%
>2.5%
34%
2.0–2.5% 19%
<0.5% 18.6%
1.0–1.5% 12.6%
0.5–1.0% 12.3%
$28,267 ปริมาณ
$28,267 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 ปริมาณ
19%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 ปริมาณ
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 ปริมาณ
13%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 ปริมาณ
42%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 ปริมาณ
22%
>2.5%
$4,088 ปริมาณ
34%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending, has anchored trader expectations for full-year 2026 expansion near the lower end of moderate ranges. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey, CBO, and private economists cluster around 2.2%, reflecting resilient consumer outlays tempered by higher energy prices and a stable but softening labor market with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0% bin at 47.3% as traders price in potential drag from tariffs and moderating fiscal support, while the 34.5% probability on growth above 2.5% captures upside from continued capital spending. The next key catalysts include May CPI and employment reports plus the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate-cut expectations and refine the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,267วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending, has anchored trader expectations for full-year 2026 expansion near the lower end of moderate ranges. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey, CBO, and private economists cluster around 2.2%, reflecting resilient consumer outlays tempered by higher energy prices and a stable but softening labor market with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0% bin at 47.3% as traders price in potential drag from tariffs and moderating fiscal support, while the 34.5% probability on growth above 2.5% captures upside from continued capital spending. The next key catalysts include May CPI and employment reports plus the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate-cut expectations and refine the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,267วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent first-quarter GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, driven by stronger business investment in AI equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending, has anchored trader expectations for full-year 2026 expansion near the lower end of moderate ranges. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey, CBO, and private economists cluster around 2.2%, reflecting resilient consumer outlays tempered by higher energy prices and a stable but softening labor market with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0% bin at 47.3% as traders price in potential drag from tariffs and moderating fiscal support, while the 34.5% probability on growth above 2.5% captures upside from continued capital spending. The next key catalysts include May CPI and employment reports plus the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate-cut expectations and refine the growth trajectory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย