Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and European ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Istanbul on September 18 under mostly stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and low precipitation risk. This aligns with a seasonal cooling trend following warmer early-September readings, placing the expected peak near the long-term average high for mid-September. Trader consensus reflected in the market odds—59.5% implied probability for 23°C and 32.5% for 24°C—captures residual uncertainty across model runs and potential microscale variations near observation sites, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers above 25°C or below 22°C. Updated model guidance overnight and final verified observations will determine resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 18?
23°C 61%
24°C 33%
22°C 7%
20°C or below 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
61%
24°C
33%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 61%
24°C 33%
22°C 7%
20°C or below 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$13 ปริมาณ
2%
21°C
$142 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C
$186 ปริมาณ
7%
23°C
$587 ปริมาณ
61%
24°C
$303 ปริมาณ
33%
25°C
$222 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$165 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
29°C
$528 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C or higher
$733 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and European ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Istanbul on September 18 under mostly stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and low precipitation risk. This aligns with a seasonal cooling trend following warmer early-September readings, placing the expected peak near the long-term average high for mid-September. Trader consensus reflected in the market odds—59.5% implied probability for 23°C and 32.5% for 24°C—captures residual uncertainty across model runs and potential microscale variations near observation sites, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers above 25°C or below 22°C. Updated model guidance overnight and final verified observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,879วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and European ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Istanbul on September 18 under mostly stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and low precipitation risk. This aligns with a seasonal cooling trend following warmer early-September readings, placing the expected peak near the long-term average high for mid-September. Trader consensus reflected in the market odds—59.5% implied probability for 23°C and 32.5% for 24°C—captures residual uncertainty across model runs and potential microscale variations near observation sites, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers above 25°C or below 22°C. Updated model guidance overnight and final verified observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,879วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and European ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Istanbul on September 18 under mostly stable high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly flow and low precipitation risk. This aligns with a seasonal cooling trend following warmer early-September readings, placing the expected peak near the long-term average high for mid-September. Trader consensus reflected in the market odds—59.5% implied probability for 23°C and 32.5% for 24°C—captures residual uncertainty across model runs and potential microscale variations near observation sites, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers above 25°C or below 22°C. Updated model guidance overnight and final verified observations will determine resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย