Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 ปริมาณ
$37,402 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 ปริมาณ
$37,402 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
$3,030 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$2,263 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$2,146 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$2,308 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$1,976 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$3,346 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$6,493 ปริมาณ
Yes
33°C
$4,075 ปริมาณ
No
34°C
$3,537 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$2,458 ปริมาณ
No
36°C or higher
$5,769 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$37,402วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$37,402วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย