Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature today, with model runs from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside NiMet guidance, converging around 30–32°C amid the seasonal shift to rainy conditions. Morning observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show temperatures starting near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with high humidity (80–90%), tempered by sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea that cap peak heating. Differentiating factors include timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms—more persistent cloudiness favors 30°C, while clearer intervals allow 31–32°C—historical May averages of 31°C provide context, with urban heat island effects in Lagos adding ~1°C. Hourly updates through 4 p.m. local time could sharpen implied probabilities as convection evolves.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
32°C 25%
31°C 21%
30°C 18%
33°C 16%
$13,792 ปริมาณ
$13,792 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
28°C
<1%
29°C
7%
30°C
18%
31°C
21%
32°C
25%
33°C
16%
34°C
6%
35°C
9%
36°C or higher
2%
32°C 25%
31°C 21%
30°C 18%
33°C 16%
$13,792 ปริมาณ
$13,792 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
28°C
$2,074 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$437 ปริมาณ
7%
30°C
$409 ปริมาณ
18%
31°C
$704 ปริมาณ
21%
32°C
$932 ปริมาณ
25%
33°C
$1,045 ปริมาณ
16%
34°C
$1,429 ปริมาณ
6%
35°C
$968 ปริมาณ
9%
36°C or higher
$2,112 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature today, with model runs from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside NiMet guidance, converging around 30–32°C amid the seasonal shift to rainy conditions. Morning observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show temperatures starting near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with high humidity (80–90%), tempered by sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea that cap peak heating. Differentiating factors include timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms—more persistent cloudiness favors 30°C, while clearer intervals allow 31–32°C—historical May averages of 31°C provide context, with urban heat island effects in Lagos adding ~1°C. Hourly updates through 4 p.m. local time could sharpen implied probabilities as convection evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,792วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature today, with model runs from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside NiMet guidance, converging around 30–32°C amid the seasonal shift to rainy conditions. Morning observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show temperatures starting near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with high humidity (80–90%), tempered by sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea that cap peak heating. Differentiating factors include timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms—more persistent cloudiness favors 30°C, while clearer intervals allow 31–32°C—historical May averages of 31°C provide context, with urban heat island effects in Lagos adding ~1°C. Hourly updates through 4 p.m. local time could sharpen implied probabilities as convection evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,792วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature today, with model runs from global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, alongside NiMet guidance, converging around 30–32°C amid the seasonal shift to rainy conditions. Morning observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show temperatures starting near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with high humidity (80–90%), tempered by sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea that cap peak heating. Differentiating factors include timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms—more persistent cloudiness favors 30°C, while clearer intervals allow 31–32°C—historical May averages of 31°C provide context, with urban heat island effects in Lagos adding ~1°C. Hourly updates through 4 p.m. local time could sharpen implied probabilities as convection evolves.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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