Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 14°C (57.5% implied probability) for Wellington on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs near 13-14°C amid strengthening southeasterly winds (20-30 km/h) over the past 24 hours, which advect cooler southern air masses and limit solar heating under partly cloudy skies. This cool bias has pulled odds from prior days' warmer outcomes—May 13 and 14 saw highs of 14-15°C—while aligning with May climatological averages of 14-15°C per NIWA records, though wind chill and overcast conditions boost the 13°C outcome to 25%. Model ensembles like GFS show minimal intensification potential; watch MetService's evening update for refined hourly guidance as resolution nears.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
14°C 56%
13°C 30%
15°C 13%
12°C 3.7%
ใหม่
$25,403 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$25,403 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
12°C
4%
13°C
30%
14°C
56%
15°C
13%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
1%
14°C 56%
13°C 30%
15°C 13%
12°C 3.7%
ใหม่
$25,403 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$25,403 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
12°C
$3,653 ปริมาณ
4%
13°C
$2,787 ปริมาณ
30%
14°C
$1,874 ปริมาณ
56%
15°C
$2,795 ปริมาณ
13%
16°C
$4,521 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C or higher
$1,794 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 14°C (57.5% implied probability) for Wellington on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs near 13-14°C amid strengthening southeasterly winds (20-30 km/h) over the past 24 hours, which advect cooler southern air masses and limit solar heating under partly cloudy skies. This cool bias has pulled odds from prior days' warmer outcomes—May 13 and 14 saw highs of 14-15°C—while aligning with May climatological averages of 14-15°C per NIWA records, though wind chill and overcast conditions boost the 13°C outcome to 25%. Model ensembles like GFS show minimal intensification potential; watch MetService's evening update for refined hourly guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,403วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 14°C (57.5% implied probability) for Wellington on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs near 13-14°C amid strengthening southeasterly winds (20-30 km/h) over the past 24 hours, which advect cooler southern air masses and limit solar heating under partly cloudy skies. This cool bias has pulled odds from prior days' warmer outcomes—May 13 and 14 saw highs of 14-15°C—while aligning with May climatological averages of 14-15°C per NIWA records, though wind chill and overcast conditions boost the 13°C outcome to 25%. Model ensembles like GFS show minimal intensification potential; watch MetService's evening update for refined hourly guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,403วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 14°C (57.5% implied probability) for Wellington on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs near 13-14°C amid strengthening southeasterly winds (20-30 km/h) over the past 24 hours, which advect cooler southern air masses and limit solar heating under partly cloudy skies. This cool bias has pulled odds from prior days' warmer outcomes—May 13 and 14 saw highs of 14-15°C—while aligning with May climatological averages of 14-15°C per NIWA records, though wind chill and overcast conditions boost the 13°C outcome to 25%. Model ensembles like GFS show minimal intensification potential; watch MetService's evening update for refined hourly guidance as resolution nears.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย