Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$318,805 ปริมาณ
$318,805 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$318,805 ปริมาณ
$318,805 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
$3,621 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$2,675 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$3,020 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$4,298 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$6,131 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$33,172 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$33,653 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$78,136 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$63,623 ปริมาณ
100%
30°C
$62,358 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C or higher
$28,120 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$318,805วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$318,805วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 29°C (99.9% implied probability) as Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 14, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast models projecting a peak of 28–29°C amid normal to above-normal seasonal temperatures for May, where historical averages hover around 28°C daytime highs. Current observations at HKO, including a 10 a.m. reading of 29°C under partly cloudy skies with 78% relative humidity, align with this positioning, reflecting stable subtropical conditions with limited convective activity to push temperatures higher. While strong model agreement supports this outcome, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover or sea breezes causing minor cooling below 29°C, or isolated urban heat effects nudging it to 30°C; final HKO daily maximum data, typically released post-midnight, will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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