Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$121,477 ปริมาณ
$121,477 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$121,477 ปริมาณ
$121,477 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
17°C or below
$5,324 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$2,594 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$2,374 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$8,791 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$23,213 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$23,654 ปริมาณ
Yes
23°C
$14,011 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$15,782 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$9,615 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$8,900 ปริมาณ
No
27°C or higher
$7,220 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121,477วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121,477วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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