Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on May 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 18?
34°C 38%
35°C 32%
33°C 22%
36°C 13.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
4%
33°C
22%
34°C
38%
35°C
32%
36°C
13%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 32%
33°C 22%
36°C 13.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
$1,013 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$113 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$1,083 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C
$933 ปริมาณ
4%
33°C
$749 ปริมาณ
22%
34°C
$436 ปริมาณ
38%
35°C
$286 ปริมาณ
32%
36°C
$1,005 ปริมาณ
13%
37°C
$343 ปริมาณ
2%
38°C
$343 ปริมาณ
<1%
39°C or higher
$305 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,609วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,609วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย