Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daily maximum near 28 °C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This consensus across operational models underpins the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for exactly 28 °C, aligning with climatological expectations for late-May conditions where afternoon peaks commonly reach the upper 20s. Traders appear to have incorporated the limited remaining window before the official high is recorded, leaving little scope for significant revision. Only a late surge in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or an unforecast frontal passage could realistically shift the outcome toward lower thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$73,022 ปริมาณ
$73,022 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$73,022 ปริมาณ
$73,022 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$1,793 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$819 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$5,290 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$8,445 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$7,219 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$9,577 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$10,346 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$10,809 ปริมาณ
100%
29°C
$6,426 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C or higher
$9,375 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daily maximum near 28 °C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This consensus across operational models underpins the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for exactly 28 °C, aligning with climatological expectations for late-May conditions where afternoon peaks commonly reach the upper 20s. Traders appear to have incorporated the limited remaining window before the official high is recorded, leaving little scope for significant revision. Only a late surge in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or an unforecast frontal passage could realistically shift the outcome toward lower thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$73,022วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daily maximum near 28 °C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This consensus across operational models underpins the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for exactly 28 °C, aligning with climatological expectations for late-May conditions where afternoon peaks commonly reach the upper 20s. Traders appear to have incorporated the limited remaining window before the official high is recorded, leaving little scope for significant revision. Only a late surge in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or an unforecast frontal passage could realistically shift the outcome toward lower thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$73,022วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daily maximum near 28 °C at Tokyo’s official Otemachi station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. This consensus across operational models underpins the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for exactly 28 °C, aligning with climatological expectations for late-May conditions where afternoon peaks commonly reach the upper 20s. Traders appear to have incorporated the limited remaining window before the official high is recorded, leaving little scope for significant revision. Only a late surge in cloud cover, stronger onshore flow, or an unforecast frontal passage could realistically shift the outcome toward lower thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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