Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 55%
15°C 37%
13°C 6.5%
16°C 2.9%
ใหม่
$22,295 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$22,295 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
55%
15°C
37%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 55%
15°C 37%
13°C 6.5%
16°C 2.9%
ใหม่
$22,295 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$22,295 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$485 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$540 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$4,720 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$2,298 ปริมาณ
1%
13°C
$2,810 ปริมาณ
6%
14°C
$2,789 ปริมาณ
55%
15°C
$1,969 ปริมาณ
37%
16°C
$3,948 ปริมาณ
3%
17°C
$1,162 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C or higher
$916 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,295วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,295วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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