Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
ภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 ปริมาณ
$1,079,004 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 ปริมาณ
$1,079,004 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,398 ปริมาณ
61%
1
$260,191 ปริมาณ
35%
2
$32,241 ปริมาณ
4%
3
$26,240 ปริมาณ
1%
4
$24,441 ปริมาณ
<1%
5+
$258,493 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,079,004วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,079,004วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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