**Clear skies and light southwesterly winds are expected to promote radiative cooling overnight into August 28, 2026, creating a narrow range for Madrid’s minimum temperature centered near 12–16 °C.** Multiple high-resolution models (GFS, ECMWF, and others) show the city cooling from daytime highs near 24–26 °C under mostly clear conditions, with the lowest readings likely occurring just before dawn when dew points fall to 9–11 °C and winds drop below 3 m/s. Forecast spreads arise mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the exact timing of high-pressure building; some runs keep the low near 12–13 °C while others limit cooling to 15–16 °C. This scientific uncertainty, combined with the market’s resolution on the official observed minimum, explains the closely matched implied probabilities for 12 °C (44.5 %), 16 °C (42.0 %), and 15 °C (41.5 %). Traders are effectively pricing the small but meaningful differences between model consensus and local station measurements under these stable late-summer conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
13°C 44%
12°C 44%
15°C 43%
16°C 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
12%
10°C
40%
11°C
32%
12°C
44%
13°C
44%
14°C
10%
15°C
43%
16°C
43%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
3%
13°C 44%
12°C 44%
15°C 43%
16°C 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$81 ปริมาณ
12%
10°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
32%
12°C
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
16°C
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
17°C
$20 ปริมาณ
8%
18°C
$5 ปริมาณ
8%
19°C or higher
$15 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southwesterly winds are expected to promote radiative cooling overnight into August 28, 2026, creating a narrow range for Madrid’s minimum temperature centered near 12–16 °C.** Multiple high-resolution models (GFS, ECMWF, and others) show the city cooling from daytime highs near 24–26 °C under mostly clear conditions, with the lowest readings likely occurring just before dawn when dew points fall to 9–11 °C and winds drop below 3 m/s.
Forecast spreads arise mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the exact timing of high-pressure building; some runs keep the low near 12–13 °C while others limit cooling to 15–16 °C. This scientific uncertainty, combined with the market’s resolution on the official observed minimum, explains the closely matched implied probabilities for 12 °C (44.5 %), 16 °C (42.0 %), and 15 °C (41.5 %). Traders are effectively pricing the small but meaningful differences between model consensus and local station measurements under these stable late-summer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southwesterly winds are expected to promote radiative cooling overnight into August 28, 2026, creating a narrow range for Madrid’s minimum temperature centered near 12–16 °C.** Multiple high-resolution models (GFS, ECMWF, and others) show the city cooling from daytime highs near 24–26 °C under mostly clear conditions, with the lowest readings likely occurring just before dawn when dew points fall to 9–11 °C and winds drop below 3 m/s.
Forecast spreads arise mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the exact timing of high-pressure building; some runs keep the low near 12–13 °C while others limit cooling to 15–16 °C. This scientific uncertainty, combined with the market’s resolution on the official observed minimum, explains the closely matched implied probabilities for 12 °C (44.5 %), 16 °C (42.0 %), and 15 °C (41.5 %). Traders are effectively pricing the small but meaningful differences between model consensus and local station measurements under these stable late-summer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and light southwesterly winds are expected to promote radiative cooling overnight into August 28, 2026, creating a narrow range for Madrid’s minimum temperature centered near 12–16 °C.** Multiple high-resolution models (GFS, ECMWF, and others) show the city cooling from daytime highs near 24–26 °C under mostly clear conditions, with the lowest readings likely occurring just before dawn when dew points fall to 9–11 °C and winds drop below 3 m/s. Forecast spreads arise mainly from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the exact timing of high-pressure building; some runs keep the low near 12–13 °C while others limit cooling to 15–16 °C. This scientific uncertainty, combined with the market’s resolution on the official observed minimum, explains the closely matched implied probabilities for 12 °C (44.5 %), 16 °C (42.0 %), and 15 °C (41.5 %). Traders are effectively pricing the small but meaningful differences between model consensus and local station measurements under these stable late-summer conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย