**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology in this subtropical monsoon region where average lows hover around 25–26°C.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and northwest winds of 10–20 km/h are expected to enhance radiative cooling overnight, supporting the elevated market-implied odds (around 25–30%) clustered at 24–26°C. The 46% probability assigned to 20°C or below likely reflects trader caution over model spread in precipitation timing and any stronger northerly flow that could briefly advect cooler air from inland areas, though current official guidance from regional meteorological centers shows limited downside risk below 23°C. Warmer outcomes above 27°C carry low odds (under 26% each) given the stabilizing marine influence and high humidity. Updated model runs and any revised rainfall forecasts from the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for shifts in these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2?
25°C 31%
24°C 28%
23°C 24%
26°C 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
5%
21°C
14%
22°C
19%
23°C
24%
24°C
28%
25°C
31%
26°C
24%
27°C
24%
28°C
10%
29°C
19%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 31%
24°C 28%
23°C 24%
26°C 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
$5 ปริมาณ
5%
21°C
$5 ปริมาณ
14%
22°C
$5 ปริมาณ
19%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
29°C
$5 ปริมาณ
19%
30°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology in this subtropical monsoon region where average lows hover around 25–26°C.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and northwest winds of 10–20 km/h are expected to enhance radiative cooling overnight, supporting the elevated market-implied odds (around 25–30%) clustered at 24–26°C. The 46% probability assigned to 20°C or below likely reflects trader caution over model spread in precipitation timing and any stronger northerly flow that could briefly advect cooler air from inland areas, though current official guidance from regional meteorological centers shows limited downside risk below 23°C. Warmer outcomes above 27°C carry low odds (under 26% each) given the stabilizing marine influence and high humidity. Updated model runs and any revised rainfall forecasts from the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for shifts in these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology in this subtropical monsoon region where average lows hover around 25–26°C.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and northwest winds of 10–20 km/h are expected to enhance radiative cooling overnight, supporting the elevated market-implied odds (around 25–30%) clustered at 24–26°C. The 46% probability assigned to 20°C or below likely reflects trader caution over model spread in precipitation timing and any stronger northerly flow that could briefly advect cooler air from inland areas, though current official guidance from regional meteorological centers shows limited downside risk below 23°C. Warmer outcomes above 27°C carry low odds (under 26% each) given the stabilizing marine influence and high humidity. Updated model runs and any revised rainfall forecasts from the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for shifts in these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology in this subtropical monsoon region where average lows hover around 25–26°C.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and northwest winds of 10–20 km/h are expected to enhance radiative cooling overnight, supporting the elevated market-implied odds (around 25–30%) clustered at 24–26°C. The 46% probability assigned to 20°C or below likely reflects trader caution over model spread in precipitation timing and any stronger northerly flow that could briefly advect cooler air from inland areas, though current official guidance from regional meteorological centers shows limited downside risk below 23°C. Warmer outcomes above 27°C carry low odds (under 26% each) given the stabilizing marine influence and high humidity. Updated model runs and any revised rainfall forecasts from the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for shifts in these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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