The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15 amid quiescent conditions, driving the market's 94.5% implied probability for "No" named storm before June 1. Cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress organization, aligning with historical rarity—fewer than 5% of named storms form pre-season since 1851. Trader consensus reflects this scientific consensus from NOAA and model guidance like GFS and ECMWF showing no development signals. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen low-latitude disturbance amid warming SST trends or El Niño dissipation, though low risk persists until NOAA's May 21 outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$340,699 ปริมาณ
$340,699 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
$340,699 ปริมาณ
$340,699 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15 amid quiescent conditions, driving the market's 94.5% implied probability for "No" named storm before June 1. Cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress organization, aligning with historical rarity—fewer than 5% of named storms form pre-season since 1851. Trader consensus reflects this scientific consensus from NOAA and model guidance like GFS and ECMWF showing no development signals. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen low-latitude disturbance amid warming SST trends or El Niño dissipation, though low risk persists until NOAA's May 21 outlook.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
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$340,699วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15 amid quiescent conditions, driving the market's 94.5% implied probability for "No" named storm before June 1. Cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress organization, aligning with historical rarity—fewer than 5% of named storms form pre-season since 1851. Trader consensus reflects this scientific consensus from NOAA and model guidance like GFS and ECMWF showing no development signals. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen low-latitude disturbance amid warming SST trends or El Niño dissipation, though low risk persists until NOAA's May 21 outlook.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,699วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15 amid quiescent conditions, driving the market's 94.5% implied probability for "No" named storm before June 1. Cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below the 26.5°C threshold in the main development region, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress organization, aligning with historical rarity—fewer than 5% of named storms form pre-season since 1851. Trader consensus reflects this scientific consensus from NOAA and model guidance like GFS and ECMWF showing no development signals. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen low-latitude disturbance amid warming SST trends or El Niño dissipation, though low risk persists until NOAA's May 21 outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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