Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam maintains a narrow edge in trader assessments for completing 2026 in office, supported by his recent diplomatic outreach including direct talks with Israel and meetings with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on border security. A fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah continues to hold amid ongoing enforcement along the Blue Line, while Salam has advanced Phase Two disarmament efforts beyond the Litani River and sought international backing for reforms and a potential new security force to replace UNIFIL after its mandate ends. President Joseph Aoun’s backing and scheduled parliamentary elections provide institutional continuity, yet sectarian power-sharing pressures, Hezbollah’s entrenched influence, and unresolved economic challenges sustain competitive odds. A ceasefire collapse, parliamentary no-confidence vote, or stalled reforms could accelerate exit risks, whereas sustained state authority gains or successful negotiations might reinforce stability through year-end.