Israel's consistent enforcement of its naval blockade on Gaza has driven near-certain trader consensus against any flotilla vessel reaching the territory by May 31. The Global Sumud Flotilla and Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels, after repeated interceptions in international waters during April departures from Spain and Greece, relaunched on May 14 from southern Turkey with dozens of boats still hundreds of nautical miles distant. Historical patterns of boarding, diversion to ports like Crete, and detentions of activists reinforce expectations that enforcement will continue through the brief remaining window. Realistic shifts could arise only from an undetected transit, sudden policy reversal, or external diplomatic pressure halting operations before the deadline.