Traders see an 81.5% chance that no new COVID variant of concern will be declared before 2027 because ongoing genomic surveillance shows only incremental Omicron sublineages, such as BA.3.2 and XFG, circulating at low levels without triggering the public-health thresholds for elevated transmissibility, severity, or immune escape. These strains, first noted in late 2024 and monitored closely through 2025-2026, have appeared in wastewater and limited clinical samples across multiple countries yet produce no widespread surges or changes in disease outcomes that would prompt a WHO upgrade from variant under monitoring. Established immunity from prior infections and updated vaccines continues to blunt impacts, while the absence of any major antigenic shift in the past two years reinforces the market's expectation of stability through the end of 2026.