Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 80% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's Senate following the October 4, 2026 general elections, where 54 of 81 seats—two-thirds of the chamber—are up for renewal across 27 states. PL enters as the current largest party with 15 senators after recent defections in January 2026, bolstering its incumbency edge and path to plurality amid fragmented fields from PP, PSDB, and UNIÃO. Recent Genial/Quaest polls (April 21-29) in populous states like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro leading), Paraná (Filipe Barros strong), and Pernambuco highlight PL competitiveness, amplified by the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signaling opposition momentum. Presidential race tightness between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) may provide coattails, though Northeast left strongholds pose risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPL 77%
PP 5.8%
PSDB 4.0%
UNIÃO 3.6%
$14,076 ปริมาณ
$14,076 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
PL
75%
PP
7%
PSDB
4%
UNIÃO
4%
PSB
3%
REPUBLICANOS
1%
PDT
1%
MDB
1%
PSD
1%
PT
1%
NOVO
1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PL 77%
PP 5.8%
PSDB 4.0%
UNIÃO 3.6%
$14,076 ปริมาณ
$14,076 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
PL
$3,033 ปริมาณ
75%
PP
$588 ปริมาณ
7%
PSDB
$779 ปริมาณ
4%
UNIÃO
$606 ปริมาณ
4%
PSB
$606 ปริมาณ
3%
REPUBLICANOS
$618 ปริมาณ
1%
PDT
$4,076 ปริมาณ
1%
MDB
$696 ปริมาณ
1%
PSD
$842 ปริมาณ
1%
PT
$839 ปริมาณ
1%
NOVO
$581 ปริมาณ
1%
PODEMOS
$814 ปริมาณ
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 80% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's Senate following the October 4, 2026 general elections, where 54 of 81 seats—two-thirds of the chamber—are up for renewal across 27 states. PL enters as the current largest party with 15 senators after recent defections in January 2026, bolstering its incumbency edge and path to plurality amid fragmented fields from PP, PSDB, and UNIÃO. Recent Genial/Quaest polls (April 21-29) in populous states like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro leading), Paraná (Filipe Barros strong), and Pernambuco highlight PL competitiveness, amplified by the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signaling opposition momentum. Presidential race tightness between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) may provide coattails, though Northeast left strongholds pose risks.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,076วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 80% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's Senate following the October 4, 2026 general elections, where 54 of 81 seats—two-thirds of the chamber—are up for renewal across 27 states. PL enters as the current largest party with 15 senators after recent defections in January 2026, bolstering its incumbency edge and path to plurality amid fragmented fields from PP, PSDB, and UNIÃO. Recent Genial/Quaest polls (April 21-29) in populous states like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro leading), Paraná (Filipe Barros strong), and Pernambuco highlight PL competitiveness, amplified by the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signaling opposition momentum. Presidential race tightness between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) may provide coattails, though Northeast left strongholds pose risks.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,076วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 80% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's Senate following the October 4, 2026 general elections, where 54 of 81 seats—two-thirds of the chamber—are up for renewal across 27 states. PL enters as the current largest party with 15 senators after recent defections in January 2026, bolstering its incumbency edge and path to plurality amid fragmented fields from PP, PSDB, and UNIÃO. Recent Genial/Quaest polls (April 21-29) in populous states like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro leading), Paraná (Filipe Barros strong), and Pernambuco highlight PL competitiveness, amplified by the Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signaling opposition momentum. Presidential race tightness between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) may provide coattails, though Northeast left strongholds pose risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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