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การเลือกตั้ง·ตะวันออกกลาง

ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน

icon for ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน
การเลือกตั้ง·ตะวันออกกลาง

ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 5.7%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 3.1%

พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) 2.2%

พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb) 1.9%

Polymarket

$523,903 ปริมาณ

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล) 5.7%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 3.1%

พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom) 2.2%

พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb) 1.9%

Polymarket

$523,903 ปริมาณ

ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)

$53,592 ปริมาณ

6%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$157,880 ปริมาณ

3%

พรรคก้าวหน้า (Taqaddom)

$5,444 ปริมาณ

2%

พรรคกาตาเอบ (Kataeb)

$3,996 ปริมาณ

2%

ขบวนการรักชาติอิสระ (FPM)

$73,423 ปริมาณ

1%

กลุ่มอิสลาม (IG)

$3,391 ปริมาณ

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$3,487 ปริมาณ

1%

พรรคชาตินิยมเสรี (NLP)

$4,059 ปริมาณ

1%

ReLebanon

$2,715 ปริมาณ

1%

พันธมิตรวะตะนี (วะตะนี)

$3,671 ปริมาณ

1%

สมาคมโครงการอิสลามเพื่อการกุศล (ICPA)

$3,648 ปริมาณ

1%

Union Party (UP)

$3,000 ปริมาณ

1%

เฮซบอลเลาะห์ (Hezb)

$43,670 ปริมาณ

1%

ขบวนการมาราดา (MM)

$2,927 ปริมาณ

1%

พรรคสนทนาแห่งชาติ (NDP)

$41,888 ปริมาณ

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$5,112 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคมะดะ (มะดะ)

$24,363 ปริมาณ

<1%

ลานา – พรรคประชาธิปไตยสังคม (ลานา)

$4,440 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคอาหรับสังคมนิยมบาธในเลบานอน (บาธ)

$6,562 ปริมาณ

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,329 ปริมาณ

<1%

พรรคสังคมนิยมก้าวหน้า (PSP)

$47,456 ปริมาณ

<1%

ขบวนการอิสรภาพ (IM)

$3,135 ปริมาณ

<1%

ขบวนการศักดิ์ศรี (DM)

$22,716 ปริมาณ

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing war devastation, mass displacement from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and logistical hurdles, leaving trader consensus deeply fragmented with Amal Movement at 5.7% implied probability atop a wide-open field. Amal, led by Speaker Nabih Berri who championed the extension, edges ahead via entrenched Shia influence and alliance stability with Hezbollah despite the latter's setbacks; Lebanese Forces (3.1%) draws Christian opposition backing amid anti-militia sentiment, while Taqaddom Party (2.3%) taps Sunni fragmentation post-Hariri. Consolidation hinges on sectarian mobilization under proportional representation, diaspora voter registration momentum, emerging Sunni alliances like MP Fouad Makhzoumi's May gatherings, and post-ceasefire recovery—any snap election call or coalition breakthroughs could rapidly shift odds.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$523,903
วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone May parliamentary elections by two years to 2028, citing war devastation, mass displacement from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and logistical hurdles, leaving trader consensus deeply fragmented with Amal Movement at 5.7% implied probability atop a wide-open field. Amal, led by Speaker Nabih Berri who championed the extension, edges ahead via entrenched Shia influence and alliance stability with Hezbollah despite the latter's setbacks; Lebanese Forces (3.1%) draws Christian opposition backing amid anti-militia sentiment, while Taqaddom Party (2.3%) taps Sunni fragmentation post-Hariri. Consolidation hinges on sectarian mobilization under proportional representation, diaspora voter registration momentum, emerging Sunni alliances like MP Fouad Makhzoumi's May gatherings, and post-ceasefire recovery—any snap election call or coalition breakthroughs could rapidly shift odds.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$523,903
วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก

คำถามที่พบบ่อย

"ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่มี 23 ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นไปได้ โดยนักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นตามสิ่งที่เชื่อว่าจะเกิดขึ้น ผลลัพธ์ที่นำอยู่ในปัจจุบันคือ "ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)" ที่ 6% ตามด้วย "Lebanese Forces (LF)" ที่ 3% ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ ตัวอย่างเช่น หุ้นที่มีราคา 6¢ หมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 6% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล

ณ วันนี้ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" มีปริมาณการซื้อขายรวม $523.9K ตั้งแต่ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ Jan 6, 2026 ระดับการซื้อขายนี้สะท้อนถึงการมีส่วนร่วมอย่างมากจากชุมชน Polymarket และช่วยให้อัตราปัจจุบันได้รับข้อมูลจากผู้เข้าร่วมตลาดจำนวนมาก คุณสามารถติดตามการเคลื่อนไหวของราคาแบบสดและเทรดผลลัพธ์ใดก็ได้จากหน้านี้โดยตรง

ในการเทรด "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" ดู 23 ผลลัพธ์ที่มีในหน้านี้ แต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงราคาปัจจุบันที่เป็นตัวแทนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเชื่อว่ามีโอกาสสูงสุด เลือก "Yes" เพื่อเทรดสนับสนุนหรือ "No" เพื่อเทรดคัดค้าน ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเลือกถูกต้องเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $1 ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง จ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน

นี่เป็นตลาดที่เปิดกว้าง ผู้นำปัจจุบันสำหรับ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" คือ "ขบวนการอามัล (อามัล)" ที่เพียง 6% โดย "Lebanese Forces (LF)" ตามมาติดๆ ที่ 3% เนื่องจากไม่มีผลลัพธ์ใดครองเสียงข้างมาก นักเทรดมองว่ามีความไม่แน่นอนสูง ซึ่งอาจเป็นโอกาสในการเทรดที่น่าสนใจ อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ บุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อดูว่าความน่าจะเป็นเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไร

กฎการตัดสินผลของ "ผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกรัฐสภาเลบานอน" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้