Russia’s sustained diplomatic isolation from the G7 stems primarily from the ongoing Ukraine conflict and Moscow’s explicit rejection of readmission. In December 2025, President Putin described the group as irrelevant and unnecessary for Russia, while G7 members issued a February 2026 joint statement reaffirming sanctions and support for Ukraine. European leaders including Germany’s Friedrich Merz have ruled out any return absent major concessions, and the upcoming June 2026 summit in France shows no signs of shifting this unified stance. Traders assign the 93.7% probability for no rejoining before 2027 because structural barriers—continued military engagement, absence of consensus among the seven nations, and Russia’s preference for alternative forums—remain firmly in place, though a comprehensive peace agreement could still alter the outlook.