Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA, including ongoing radar tracking and optical surveys, shows no catalogued asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric explosion in 2026. Historical data indicate such events occur only a few times per decade, with recent close approaches involving far smaller objects that miss Earth by wide margins. Traders assign 98.3% probability to "No" because detection networks have identified and ruled out threats well in advance, consistent with established planetary defense capabilities. Late discoveries of dark or fast-moving bodies remain theoretically possible but face steep barriers from expanded survey coverage and real-time fireball sensors.