The crowded Republican primary for Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd Congressional District, set for August 18, 2026, features multiple self-funded candidates competing in an open race reshaped by redistricting. Recent polling shows a statistical tie among Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, and Michael Carbonara, with over 40 percent of likely voters undecided, while David Burck and Terri Hasdorff trail. Prediction market prices reflect trader emphasis on Carbonara and Burck as frontrunners, driven by their fundraising scale, name recognition among Republican primary voters, and positioning on issues such as the economy and immigration. The absence of a dominant endorsement or late campaign event has kept probabilities tightly bunched, with any strong turnout signals or final-week developments likely to shift the implied consensus.