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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

icon for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

≤8 50%

10 15%

9 14%

11 12%

Polymarket

$90,387 Vol.

≤8 50%

10 15%

9 14%

11 12%

Polymarket

$90,387 Vol.

≤8

$25,442 Vol.

50%

9

$17,549 Vol.

20%

10

$8,417 Vol.

15%

11

$28,083 Vol.

12%

12

$4,406 Vol.

8%

13

$2,773 Vol.

3%

14+

$3,718 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide through mid-May 2026, primarily along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, according to USGS records. This total aligns with the long-term average rate of roughly 16 such events annually, though a three-week seismic lull since the April 20 magnitude 7.4 event near Miyako, Japan, has kept recent activity subdued. Seismicity often follows a Poisson distribution featuring natural clustering and quiet intervals, creating uncertainty over whether rates will accelerate or remain low through the June 30 cutoff. USGS monitoring of major fault systems will clarify if the final count stays near or below the historical baseline for the first half of the year.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$90,387
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide through mid-May 2026, primarily along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, according to USGS records. This total aligns with the long-term average rate of roughly 16 such events annually, though a three-week seismic lull since the April 20 magnitude 7.4 event near Miyako, Japan, has kept recent activity subdued. Seismicity often follows a Poisson distribution featuring natural clustering and quiet intervals, creating uncertainty over whether rates will accelerate or remain low through the June 30 cutoff. USGS monitoring of major fault systems will clarify if the final count stays near or below the historical baseline for the first half of the year.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$90,387
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "≤8" sa 50%, sinusundan ng "9" sa 20%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 50¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" ay naka-generate ng $90.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 2, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" ay "≤8" sa 50%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 50% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "9" sa 20%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.