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Halalan·Gitnang Silangan

Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon

icon for Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon
Halalan·Gitnang Silangan

Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon

Amal Movement (Amal) 6.0%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 3.4%

Marada Movement (MM) 2.1%

ReLebanon 2.0%

Polymarket

$523,065 Vol.

Amal Movement (Amal) 6.0%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 3.4%

Marada Movement (MM) 2.1%

ReLebanon 2.0%

Polymarket

$523,065 Vol.

Amal Movement (Amal)

$53,497 Vol.

6%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$157,839 Vol.

3%

Marada Movement (MM)

$2,916 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,679 Vol.

2%

Islamic Group (IG)

$3,323 Vol.

2%

Taqaddom Party

$5,431 Vol.

1%

Union Party (UP)

$2,860 Vol.

1%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$3,985 Vol.

1%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$3,637 Vol.

1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$3,940 Vol.

1%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$3,660 Vol.

1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$43,639 Vol.

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$3,454 Vol.

1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$73,303 Vol.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$41,878 Vol.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$5,095 Vol.

<1%

Mada Party (Mada)

$24,353 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$4,430 Vol.

<1%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$47,445 Vol.

<1%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party sa Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$6,552 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,318 Vol.

<1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$3,125 Vol.

<1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$22,705 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$523,065
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$523,065
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 23 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Amal Movement (Amal)" sa 6%, sinusundan ng "Lebanese Forces (LF)" sa 3%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 6¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 6% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon" ay naka-generate ng $523.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jan 6, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon," i-browse ang 23 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Isa itong wide-open market. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna para sa "Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon" ay "Amal Movement (Amal)" sa 6% lang, na may "Lebanese Forces (LF)" na malapit sa likod sa 3%. Walang outcome na may malakas na mayorya, kaya nakikita ito ng mga trader bilang highly uncertain, na maaaring magbigay ng mga kakaibang trading opportunity. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time, kaya i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para panoorin kung paano nag-e-evolve ang probabilities.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Nagwagi ng Halalan sa Parlamento ng Lebanon" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.